The public record
Every figure on this page is read live from the same database the product runs on. Nothing is held back for looking bad.
What was read
candidates assessed since launch
cleared
disqualified
Roughly one candidate in clears.
Today
read
cleared
disqualified
Where the candidates went
The three most recent disqualifications, whichever they happen to be.
Today, by reason
What has happened to the cleared signals
cleared so far, on two axes that move independently.
Where they sit in time
upcoming
live
closed
What has happened to the thesis
unresolved
confirming
catalyst fired
invalidated
lapsed
signals have not reached their window yet. The median opens in days.
A signal read before its window opens is read as early as it can be. The development is already public. The period its catalyst is expected in has not started.
Every one of them carries a stated catalyst and a stated way to be proven wrong, and both were recorded on the day it was scored.
How long a signal gets
Timeframe
Window
Grace
Total
days
Windows are sized to the implication timeframe, with a grace period on top.
A signal whose only test is spent lapses early. A signal given a replacement catalyst is re-sized from its discovery date, which caps how far it can ever run.
signals have run out of time without a verdict. That is the entire lapsed record, and at that sample size no rate is worth computing, so none is given.
Where five months comes from
Five months, on the landing page, is the median near-term window: days. Medium-term theses run about months.
What gets read
Signals cleared per category since launch.
A signal can carry tags belonging to more than one category, so these counts add up to more than the number of signals. sit in two or more, and in none.
The distribution is a readout of where research activity is concentrated. When a field starts producing more that clears the bar, its count rises here.
How the scores fall
cleared signals, by total score.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Nothing has ever scored 9 out of 9. signals have scored . The mean is .
Every one of these is published, at every score. The signals that scored carry the same reasoning, the same sources and the same verified market exposure as the that scored .
When things enter
Nothing enters a run more than hours after it was published.
Across the cleared signals that carry both a publication and a discovery timestamp: violations, longest gap , median .
Everything scored so far is there the moment you sign in. Every run since launch, every signal at every score, with its rejection log.
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