How the reading is done
Everything below is how the engine actually runs.
The intake is fixed
The same sources every run, in the same order.
It can't bluff. A source is added by changing the engine. An editor does not get to add one because it looks interesting today.
Preprints
arXiv
bioRxiv
medRxiv
ChemRxiv
Patents & regulatory
USPTO PatentsView
SEC EDGAR
ClinicalTrials.gov
SAM.gov
DARPA
Code & models
GitHub
Hugging Face
Technical communities
Hacker News
Lobste.rs
Practitioner forums
r/LocalLLaMA
r/MachineLearning
r/biotech
r/QuantumComputing
r/Futurology
Specialist press
Breaking Defense
DefenseScoop
The War Zone
STAT News
Nothing enters late
Nothing enters a run more than hours after it was published. In practice the median is .
A paper posted on Monday is read in Monday's runs or Tuesday's, or it does not enter at all.
Verified across the cleared signals carrying both a publication and a discovery timestamp: over the limit, longest gap .
Every candidate meets the same five questions
Five dimensions, scored the same way every time. Score the same signal twice and the number comes back the same.
Magnitude
0–3
How big does this get if it’s real?
A 3 means the finding could change something fundamental: how we compute, how we treat a disease, what counts as money. That is a measure of the discovery’s size, not any price move.
Asymmetry
0–2
Is the crowd still blind to this?
A 2 means the originating community is the only audience. No mainstream coverage. No price action. The window is open, and it could close fast.
Adoption path
0–2
Can this actually reach price action?
Identifiable actors, a real commercial path, visible calendar catalysts.
Novelty
0–1
Is this a new development, or recycled noise?
Something the field didn’t already know. Not one more data point stacked onto a trend everyone is already tracking.
Investability
0–1
Is there a public way to express this?
At least one liquid, publicly traded vehicle, reverified by search during that run, never from memory. If nothing verifies, this dimension scores zero, full stop.
Total
0–9
Summed. No weighting, no adjustment.
Nothing is filtered out by score. A two is published with the same reasoning and the same verified market exposure as an eight.
In cleared signals, nothing has ever scored 9 out of 9.
have scored .
The mean is .
The scale is not calibrated to be reached. A 9 would require a finding that is fundamental, invisible to the crowd, commercially routed, genuinely new, and publicly expressible, all at once. That has not happened yet.
What the engine is forbidden to do
Four ways this could fail quietly. Each is forbidden by name.
Getting bored
No skimming, no stopping early, no generalising from the first few, no declaring an empty day because the opening items were weak. The thousandth item gets the same scrutiny as the first.
Forcing a signal
No raising a score because a run has produced nothing. An empty day is a valid result.
Dropping the tail
Every candidate gets its own verdict object. The counts reconcile exactly. Hundreds of disqualifications is the expected output, not a failure.
Faking an assessment
The cardinal violation: claiming a verdict without doing the work behind it. No calling something routine without having read it. No marking an item unreadable without having actually run the recovery search and recorded the queries. No concluding there is no investable angle from an abstract, without running the search that would find one.
Order and depth of lookup are decided by triage. Whether something gets assessed is not.
Each of these rules exists because the system did the thing the rule now forbids, and it was caught.
What it is allowed to claim
Every factual claim in a published signal comes from one of three places: the item itself, a source read by search during that run, or knowledge so established it could not have changed.
Anything else is left out. Not hedged, not attributed to “reports”, not softened with “reportedly” or “around”. Hedging an invented fact is still inventing it. The analysis is shorter, and true.
When a claim would materially strengthen the thesis and cannot be grounded, the gap is stated plainly instead of filled.
When it can't read
An item it could not open is marked unreadable, with the searches it ran attached.
A filing that won't load doesn't get a guess. The engine logs the exact searches it tried and stops there. An unreadable source stays marked unreadable; it is never quietly folded into “nothing here” just because we couldn't get in.
Who the exposure runs to
Every signal names the listed companies attached to its thesis. Each name carries the reason it is there.
Direct
Originates the development, or sits in the layer the signal affects
Supplies it
Sells the infrastructure, components or scarce inputs the change runs on
Builds on it
Adopts, licenses or commercialises it, or sits next to it in a market whose economics shift
Loses to it
Exposure runs the other way. Worse off if the thesis holds
When it can't verify
Every ticker is confirmed by search in the run it appears in, or omitted.
Nothing is pulled from memory. What the engine “remembers” about which companies are public can be out of date, so listing status gets rechecked every time. A name that can't be confirmed gets dropped, not guessed. No public vehicle, no signal.
There is no third state
Every candidate ends scored or disqualified. There is no unassessed state, no backlog, and no pile of things the engine got to later.
An item that could not be opened is disqualified as unreadable, with its recovery searches recorded. That is a verdict.
What happens after publication
A signal carries two states that move independently. One tracks the clock, the other tracks the evidence.
Stage — where it sits in time
Upcoming
the window hasn’t opened yet
Live
the window is open
Closed
the window has passed
Stage moves on the calendar alone. A signal reaches Closed whether or not anything happened.
Outcome — what has happened to the thesis
Unresolved
no verdict yet
Confirming
evidence building in favour
Catalyst fired
the predicted event happened
Invalidated
the thesis broke
Lapsed
the window closed with no verdict
The last three are terminal. A signal reaches one of them, never two. Every verdict is dated and sourced, never inferred.
A cousin of the predicted event is confirming, not catalyst fired.
The event that fires a catalyst has to be the one the signal named.
A verified miss strengthens the archive. An unverifiable win destroys it.
Nothing is relabelled to look better in hindsight.
When a prediction stops being checkable?
A catalyst can become unanswerable without the thesis playing out or breaking. The vote is deferred. The call happens and nobody raises it. One of two named conditions is settled the other way, so the test can never fire.
What follows depends on whether the occasion was actually a test.
If it arrived and was never a test, the signal gets a new catalyst against a different observable, and a new invalidation. The retired catalyst stays on the record. The replacement has to be a different test. The same question asked one quarter later is not one. A signal whose only remaining test is the old test moved forward is retired instead.
If it arrived, was a test, and came out against the thesis, there is no replacement. The signal lapses there. It does not sit out a window it can no longer resolve in.
No catalyst is re-issued past the horizon. The window is measured from the day the signal was discovered, never from today.
What the score does not tell you
The score measures how large a development is and how few people have noticed. It does not measure how likely the thesis is to resolve.
Magnitude asks how big this gets if it's real. Novelty asks whether the field already knew. Neither asks whether it will happen, and none of the five dimensions does. A high score means the discovery is significant and under-covered. It is not a probability.
You can move your own bar. What it measures does not change.
Every signal is published with its full score breakdown, its sources, its stated catalyst and the thing that would prove it wrong.
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